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Budget 2019
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Not many goodies but better than last year
THE Malaysian property market has
been in a subdued mood for some time and when budget day nears each year, hopes
would be raised amongst players in the industry that some measures would be
introduced to stimulate the market and nurse it back to its glory days. However
the hopes of the property development industry was not met last year where the
government’s focus was on affordable homes to be built by several government
agencies. In fact, there was a negative element in that the stamp duty was
raised for the price bracket of above RM1 million.
The 2018 Budget was tabled by the
finance minister on October 27 with the theme “Prosper with inclusive economy,
balancing duniawi (worldly) and ukhrawi (other-worldly) excellence to better
the lives of the rakyat towards TN50 aspirations”. The following is a snapshot
of the sections of the budget which has some relevance and impact on the
property industry.
Stable economic growth
In the budget announcement, the
government has projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2017 at
between 5.2 per cent and 5.7 per cent in 2017 and forecast economic growth for
2018 to be between 5.0 per cent and 5.5 per cent in 2018. The continued growth
of the Malaysian economy at rates close to what is projected to be achieved for
2017 spells stability and augurs well for the property market.
Further, the government has projected
the country to be near full employment with the inflation rate projected at a
benign 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent in 2018. Barring any unforeseen circumstances
which will have a drastic impact on global economic well-being such as an
outbreak of war, the spread of an infectious disease or substantial changes in
key commodity prices such as crude oil, we foresee that the property market
would be generally be stable although transaction volumes and values could
continue to decline amidst sluggish market conditions. Moreover, there are
still points of concern for market watchers viz. the current Korean peninsular
tensions and the political dynamics and conflicts in the Middle East…2018 Budget: A 'Feel-Good' Package?
Published on Sunday, 15 October 2017 14:05
THE 2018 Budget, to be unveiled on Oct 27, will be a deft
balancing act between keeping a broad-based sustained economic growth and
meeting public expectations for a more generous package.
With an eye on the general election, this
budget will definitely address short-term concerns for some segments of the
economy while keeping focus on the medium-term economic transformation.
Prime Minister and Finance Minister Datuk
Seri Najib Razak will hand out some goodies for average Malaysians — from the
poor to the middle-class, government servants and blue-collar workers.
This budget is about creating a “feel-good”
factor ahead of the 14th General Election, now widely expected to be held in
the first quarter of next year.
There will be a slew of measures to help the
people cope with the higher cost of living. There will be more incentives for
training and retraining to help workers raise their income and unemployed
graduates get jobs….
Budget 2018 expected to address high cost of living
PETALING JAYA: The
upcoming Budget 2018, to be tabled in Parliament on Oct 27, will likely address
high cost of living among the B40 group (households in the bottom 40% income
category), said Alliance DBS Research.
Its economist Manokaran Mottain said the
budget is anticipated to focus on people-centric measures, including special
initiatives to raise disposable income to alleviate the rising cost of living –
without compromising the government’s fiscal prudence and consolidation
efforts.
During this budget, Manokaran said
the government is expected to pave way for the future of the Malaysian economy,
under their new Transformasi Nasional 50 (TN50) plan that would likely emphasis
on the digital economy, and the use of technology to advance economic growth.
Alliance DBS wish-list of measures
under the budget include higher Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) allocations,
goodies for civil servants and pensioners, graduate employment scheme,
affordable housing and implementation of targeted petrol subsidies for B40
households.
Manokaran said the research house
expects the government to increase BR1M allocations by RM150 for all
households, estimating the additional handouts to cost around RM0.7 billion,
bringing total BR1M spending (households and individuals) to RM7.5 billion in
2018.
“We also expect the government to
announce a one-month bonus payout to all civil servants and RM500 to retired
civil servants. Additionally, the government could look into raising the civil
servant allowance, which has not been revised since 2002. Currently, it stands
at RM95 (for the lowest group).”
As for affordable housing, Alliance
DBS expects the government to address the issue of affordable housing supply,
expanding on their 1Malaysia People’s Housing (PR1MA) and 1Malaysia Civil
Servants Homes (PPA1M) initiatives.
“Besides that, we propose a new
transit rental home scheme, to provide an affordable housing option for fresh
graduates.”
Under this scheme, it said rental of
units can range from RM300 to RM500 per month (depending on location).
Furthermore, it said this scheme
could include a clause to purchase the home after three to five years.
Manokaran said the research house
also called for a targeted petrol subsidy – via a petrol card to BR1M
recipients to ease the burden of B40 households.
“We estimate that a 20% subsidy of 50
litres per month for each household will cost the government around RM1.2
billion.”
He said this may provide a saving of
around RM22 per month (based on RM2.20 per litre RON95 price) – which could be
used to purchase other daily essentials.
On the fiscal side, he said the
government will continue to exercise prudence in spending and diversify the
sources of revenue – reducing further dependence on oil revenue (13.5% of total
revenue in 2016).
This year the focus will be on GST
collection (19.4% of total revenue in 2016) and corporate income tax (27.4% of
total revenue), he added.
Nevertheless, he said the research
house expects a rise in operating expenditure on the back of higher emolument
spending to support the rise in civil servants payroll. The extra revenue
collected during the year will be able to offset the increase in the operating
expenditure.
Overall, Alliance DBS said the
country remains on track for a fiscal deficit to 3% of gross domestic product
(GDP) this year, and 2.8% of GDP in 2018, thanks to stronger GDP growth during
2017 to 2018. Manokaran also expects the overnight policy rate to remain
supportive of growth.
“Therefore, the benchmark interest
rate will likely be maintained at 3%, at least for the next 12 months. Finally,
we forecast 2018 GDP at 5%, and we upgrade 2017 GDP to 5.4% (from 5.2%), in
view of the improved conditions both domestically and externally.”
Finding the right balance for 2018
Finding the right balance for 2018
Posted on 13 October 2017 - 07:18am
Ramon
Navaratnam
Chairman of the Asli
Centre of Public Policy Studies
WILL Budget 2018 address the economic concerns raised by the World
Bank? The bank is normally cautious, polite and diplomatic in its reports on
national economies. You have to read between the lines to seek out the messages
it wants to convey to governments and their peoples.
The World
Bank in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update of Oct 3, presented a summary
entitled Balancing Act on Malaysia.
Main messages
First, the
economy has done well, with a growth of 5.2% this year and an estimated slower
growth of 5% and 4.8% in 2019. Hence, the economy is weakening, unless the
Budget does more to strengthen it.
The
slowdown is due to our risks as an open economy, as we are vulnerable to
external demand. This means that our exports could decline and our imports could
rise. Thus, our balance of payments current account surpluses could narrow.
Also, our exchange rate could then decline further and our cost of living could
rise.
But the
World Bank characteristically does not specify the details, lest it is seen to
be dampening our official optimism, as they see themselves as our guests in
Malaysia.
Second,
the World Bank notes that private consumption, that is what the rakyat spend on
food, transport, and shelter, etc, is large and has "expanded
firmly". It is estimated at 6.6% in 2017 and another high of 6.5% in 2018.
However, total investment is expected to increase at a slower pace of 6.1% this
year and only 3.2% next year.
We have to
remember that higher consumption can lead to less productive expenditure. And
lower capital investment can lead to less infrastructure and lower capacity to
generate production and income in the future. What can or will the Budget do
about this structural problem? The World Bank has provided the problem and not
the solution.
Third,
inflation rose to 4.1% in the first half of this year. This is high and is
likely to rise further with the relatively weak ringgit. At the same time, the
prices of food rose to a high of 4.2% for the 12-month period ending July 2017.
This is causing much hardship, especially to our low-income groups.
However,
the World Bank does not give any solutions. But will the Budget 2018 adopt the
necessary measures to reduce food prices?
My
proposal would be to liberalise the rules and reduce any protectionist policies
and the widescale corruption and expenditure wastage that both suppress and
restrict the supply of basic goods and services. If this liberalisation is not
done soon enough, the rakyat will suffer even more from rising prices.
Fourth,
house prices have risen faster than our income growth, according to the World
Bank. This makes the basic need for housing to become more unaffordable to the
lower-income groups. Thus, the World Bank rightly points out that higher house
prices raise the cost of living.
The
solution here is for the government to build and provide more incentives to the
private sector to more rapidly expand the supply of affordable houses. However,
the long-awaited mass production of more affordable houses, through the
purposeful adoption of the Industrial Building System (IBS), has not moved
faster.
The IBS
should now be implemented with a stronger political will. And if there are
powerful vested interests that oppose the use of IBS, they should be strongly
opposed by the government. This will be enthusiastically welcomed by the
rakyat, in the national and public interests.
This move
will benefit the rakyat and not some parties with narrow self-interests. I hope
the Budget will provide the necessary push for the IBS.
Fifth, the
bank states that "the Malaysian economy continues to face uncertainties
mainly from the external environment". But the bank has ignored the more
serious threats from within our country, which we can control. They are
extremism, racialism, and religious bigotry.
They are
debilitating negative forces that can undermine the national and international
confidence in our country and its potential and future. And the bank politely
keeps silent, although it is aware from its global experience that domestic and
foreign investment can be adversely affected by these negative internal forces.
These are
also the push factors for the rising brain drain. But no mention is made by the
bank of these grave concerns in the interrelated political economy.
That is
the World Bank. But will the 2018 Budget deal with these structural problems or
sweep them under the carpet?
Sixth, the
bank surprisingly and glibly proposes "reducing exemptions on the goods
and services tax (GST). Does it not realise that the low-income groups are
already experiencing considerable pain from rising prices? How could the bank
also suggest "addressing the rise of civil servants' salaries and
pensions" to contain the Budget operating expenditures. Instead, the bank
could have proposed raising productivity in the civil service by promoting more
competition, incentives, and meritocracy.
Will the
Budget address these thorny issues or let the matter rest and fester?
Finally,
the bank does mention in passing the need to "accelerating structural
reforms to improve both private sector productivity and public sector
efficiency" to sustain our current growth momentum in the medium term.
I agree
entirely, but the bank does not say how. By being over polite the bank is
missing the whole purpose of its mission in Malaysia. The bank has to be more
direct and pointed in its remarks, however brief they may be. This is essential
so that the bank where I once sat in its board, will not lose its high
reputation.
Conclusion
The bank
has to better serve Malaysia and other developing countries. But more
importantly, we hope that the Budget 2018 on Oct 27, will address the subtle
concerns expressed by the bank, on the soft state and the future of our economy
amid domestic and global uncertainty.
But we can face our challenges, if we show stronger leadership and a collective national will to succeed further. We shall overcome with God's will.
But we can face our challenges, if we show stronger leadership and a collective national will to succeed further. We shall overcome with God's will.
Related articles
Posted on 3 October 2017 / 08:46pm
KUALA
LUMPUR: Integrated banking group, CIMB,
is hoping for the government to emphasise the digital and knowledge economy, as
well as small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the upcoming 2018 Budget.
Group chief executive officer Tengku
Datuk Seri Zafrul Aziz Tengku Abdul Aziz said this is in continuation of the
previous budget, as well as the government’s ongoing efforts at improving the
SME sector.
“The government recently launched
policies emphasising innovation and creativity, especially for the SMEs,” he
told reporters on the sidelines of the Khazanah Megatrends Forum 2017 today.
He said the financial sector, as a
strong industry, needs to play a bigger role in developing SMEs, especially in
terms of innovation and expansion into the region.
He said apart from the economy, the
government is expected to table a budget to look after the welfare of the
bottom 40% (B40) and middle 40% (M40) household income earners.
“Looking at the higher cost of living
and housing, I think these are the areas the government should be focusing on.”
Tengku Zafrul Aziz said CIMB is upbeat
on Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth, underpinned by the
strengthening of oil prices as well as an improvement in the overall economy.
“The industry, as a whole, was
surprised at the good GDP performance in the first half of the year. CIMB has
upgraded Malaysia’s GDP growth forecast to 5.3% for this year from an initial
projection of 4.9%.”
The two-day forum, themed, “Cerebrum vs
Algorithm: Building True Value in a Post-Truth World”, has attracted nearly
1,000 participants, comprising local and foreign corporate leaders, policy
makers, academicians, non-governmental organisations and civil society
practitioners. – Bernama
sunbiz@thesundaily.com/9 October 2017 - 02:15pm
PETALING
JAYA: The median monthly household
income for Malaysian increased to RM5,228 in 2016 compared with RM4,585 in
2014, representing a 6.6% growth rate per annum at nominal value, according to
a survey by the Department of Statistics Malaysia.
Despite
the rise in household income, the mean monthly household consumption
expenditure for Malaysia also increased 6% per annum at nomimal value from
RM3,578 in 2014 to RM4,033 in 2016.
The
Household Income and Basic Amenities Survey was conducted between May 2016 and
April 2017, using probability samples that represent all Malaysian households
in Malaysia.
The median
monthly household income in the urban area increased 6.4% per annum from
RM5,156 in 2014 to RM5,860 in 2016, while rural area increased at 5.3% per
annum from RM3,123 to RM3,471.
The median
income of the bottom 40% (B40), middle 40% (M40) and top 20% (T20) rose in 2016
as compared with 2014, with the M40 registering the highest growth of 6.9% per
annum, followed by B40 (6.6%) and T20 (6.2%).
Kuala
Lumpur recorded the highest median monthly household income of RM9,073 followed
by Putrajaya (RM8,275), Selangor (RM7,225), Labuan (RM5,928), Johor (RM5,652),
Malacca (RM5,588) and Penang (RM5,409). Other states recorded median income
that were below the national level of RM5,228.
Malaysia’s Economy
The total trade grew by 1.5% to reach RM1.49 trillion in 2016 compared
with RM1.46 trillion in the previous year...
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s total trade grew by 1.5% to reach RM1.49 trillion in 2016 compared with RM1.46 trillion in the previous year, International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said.
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s total trade grew by 1.5% to reach RM1.49 trillion in 2016 compared with RM1.46 trillion in the previous year, International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said.
He said exports rose by 1.1% to RM785.93bil and
imports grew by 1.9% to RM698.66bil, resulting in a trade surplus of RM87.27bil,
the 19th consecutive year of trade surplus since 1998.
Mustapa said Asean’s share of Malaysia’s total exports expanded to 29.4% in 2016 from 28.2% in 2015, the highest share since 1993.
“Specifically in December 2016, Malaysia’s total trade recorded a double-digit growth of 11.1% to RM142.39bil compared with a year ago,” he said at a press conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday.
He said exports in December 2016 expanded by 10.7% year-on-year to RM75.55bil, the highest value in 2016 with manufactured goods continued to support Malaysia’s exports.
Explaining in details, he said, the increase in total trade in 2016 was contributed by higher trade with China, which expanded by RM10.09bil, United States (RM6.87bil), South Korea (RM3.56bil), Taiwan (RM3.29bil) and Saudi Arabia (RM3.04bil).
The minister said significant increases were also recorded with Turkey amounting to RM2.81bil, Hong Kong (RM1.93bil), India (RM1.85bil), Mexico (RM1.64bil), Brazil (RM1.52bil), Bangladesh (RM1.48bil), Asean (RM1.41bil) and the European Union (EU) (RM549.6mil).
He said the major contributors to export growth in 2016 were expansion of manufactured and agricultural exports by 3.2% and 4.7%, respectively, compensating for the lower performance of mining goods.
The continued growth for electrical and electronics (E & E) exports were driven by strong global demand for electronic devices and rising exports to Asean by 5.4% with significant growth to Singapore, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. The Philippines also spurred exports.
Mustapa said Asean remained as an important and strategic trading partner for Malaysia, taking up RM230.93bil of Malaysia’s exports in 2016, an increase of 5.4%.
In terms of trade, Asean accounted for 27.1% of Malaysia’s total trade in 2016, with a value of RM402.66bil, an increase of 0.4%, he said.
Mustapa said the increase in exports was led by manufactured goods which expanded by RM12.97bil or 6.7%.
The exports of manufactured goods accounted for 89.1% in 2016 compared with 87.9% in 2015, he said.
“The expansion in this sector was contributed by higher exports of E & E products, petroleum products, manufactures of metal, processed food, transport equipment, chemicals and chemical products, machinery, equipment and parts as well as textiles,” he said.
Among the Asean countries, Singapore remained the largest export market with a share of 49.6% of total exports to Asean.
“China continued to be the largest trading partner with Malaysia for the eighth consecutive year since 2009. In 2016, Malaysia’s trade with China increased by 4.4% to RM240.91bil,” said Mustapa.
Trade with the EU increased by 0.4% to RM149.05bil.
Malaysia’s exports to the EU were higher by 1.2% to RM79.84bil.
Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France and Belgium remained the top five export destinations in the region, accounting for 78.8% of Malaysia’s total exports to the EU, he said.
The country also maintained sturdy export performance to the US with an increase of 8.9% to RM80.23bil.
“Trade with the US expanded by 5.3% to RM135.88bil in 2016,” he said. In 2016, Malaysia’s exports to South Asia grew by 6.9% to RM45.39bil, after a decline of 0.9% in 2015.
Trade with South Asia rose by 7.4% to RM63.8bil in 2016 and imports increased by 8.6% to RM18.4bil, he said.
In 2016, other promising markets with significant growth in exports were Mexico, increased by RM1.59bil, attributed mainly to E & E products, Tanzania (RM264.2mil, palm oil and palm-based agriculture products) and Nigeria (RM201.9mil, petroleum products), he said. - Bernama
Mustapa said Asean’s share of Malaysia’s total exports expanded to 29.4% in 2016 from 28.2% in 2015, the highest share since 1993.
“Specifically in December 2016, Malaysia’s total trade recorded a double-digit growth of 11.1% to RM142.39bil compared with a year ago,” he said at a press conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday.
He said exports in December 2016 expanded by 10.7% year-on-year to RM75.55bil, the highest value in 2016 with manufactured goods continued to support Malaysia’s exports.
Explaining in details, he said, the increase in total trade in 2016 was contributed by higher trade with China, which expanded by RM10.09bil, United States (RM6.87bil), South Korea (RM3.56bil), Taiwan (RM3.29bil) and Saudi Arabia (RM3.04bil).
The minister said significant increases were also recorded with Turkey amounting to RM2.81bil, Hong Kong (RM1.93bil), India (RM1.85bil), Mexico (RM1.64bil), Brazil (RM1.52bil), Bangladesh (RM1.48bil), Asean (RM1.41bil) and the European Union (EU) (RM549.6mil).
He said the major contributors to export growth in 2016 were expansion of manufactured and agricultural exports by 3.2% and 4.7%, respectively, compensating for the lower performance of mining goods.
The continued growth for electrical and electronics (E & E) exports were driven by strong global demand for electronic devices and rising exports to Asean by 5.4% with significant growth to Singapore, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. The Philippines also spurred exports.
Mustapa said Asean remained as an important and strategic trading partner for Malaysia, taking up RM230.93bil of Malaysia’s exports in 2016, an increase of 5.4%.
In terms of trade, Asean accounted for 27.1% of Malaysia’s total trade in 2016, with a value of RM402.66bil, an increase of 0.4%, he said.
Mustapa said the increase in exports was led by manufactured goods which expanded by RM12.97bil or 6.7%.
The exports of manufactured goods accounted for 89.1% in 2016 compared with 87.9% in 2015, he said.
“The expansion in this sector was contributed by higher exports of E & E products, petroleum products, manufactures of metal, processed food, transport equipment, chemicals and chemical products, machinery, equipment and parts as well as textiles,” he said.
Among the Asean countries, Singapore remained the largest export market with a share of 49.6% of total exports to Asean.
“China continued to be the largest trading partner with Malaysia for the eighth consecutive year since 2009. In 2016, Malaysia’s trade with China increased by 4.4% to RM240.91bil,” said Mustapa.
Trade with the EU increased by 0.4% to RM149.05bil.
Malaysia’s exports to the EU were higher by 1.2% to RM79.84bil.
Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France and Belgium remained the top five export destinations in the region, accounting for 78.8% of Malaysia’s total exports to the EU, he said.
The country also maintained sturdy export performance to the US with an increase of 8.9% to RM80.23bil.
“Trade with the US expanded by 5.3% to RM135.88bil in 2016,” he said. In 2016, Malaysia’s exports to South Asia grew by 6.9% to RM45.39bil, after a decline of 0.9% in 2015.
Trade with South Asia rose by 7.4% to RM63.8bil in 2016 and imports increased by 8.6% to RM18.4bil, he said.
In 2016, other promising markets with significant growth in exports were Mexico, increased by RM1.59bil, attributed mainly to E & E products, Tanzania (RM264.2mil, palm oil and palm-based agriculture products) and Nigeria (RM201.9mil, petroleum products), he said. - Bernama
M’SIA AIMS TO BE ASEAN LOGISTICS HUB
Thesundaily/October 6, 2017
KUALA LUMPUR: The
government plans to turn the country into a logistics hub for the Asean region
by providing seamless connectivity, said Transport Minister Datuk Seri Liow
Tiong Lai.
He said the government had been
working hard on improving connectivity to ports by having a double tracking
train system as well as building the East Coast Railway.
He added that the government is also
committed to building new ports in Port Klang, Pahang and Malacca as well as
expanding the present ports in Sabah, Sarawak and Johor.
"E-commerce will be a big
contributor to the country's economic growth and the setting up of the Digital
Free Trade Zone (DFTZ) near KLIA is the first step," he told reporters
after opening the World Logistics Conference here yesterday.
He added that over 1,500 delegates
and 77 countries were taking part in the conference and the exhibition at the
conference is one of the biggest.
Liow said the government welcomed
international and local logistics players to set up shop at the Digital Free
Trade Zone as it will provide them with an efficient cargo clearance facility.
He said as part of the DTFZ
development there will also be a 500,000sq-ft satellite services hub in Bandar
Malaysia and a virtual zone, which is the E-Services platform.
He pointed out that a 20% increase in
ICT investment will result in 1% GDP growth but for Malaysia the figure is even
higher at 1.4%.
The minister said the recently
launched KLIA Aeropolis has 20 of the world's top 25 freight forwarders
operating out of it and it will be the gateway to Asean with over 1,250 flights
weekly within the region.
He said the government is committed to supporting the logistics sector through the National Logistics Task Force.
He said the government is committed to supporting the logistics sector through the National Logistics Task Force.
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